Saturday, 29 December 2007


There are many categories of immigrant into the UK. Comprehensive figures are never given. Here are examples:-

Regular immigrants and dependents
EU Citizens who register
EU Citizens who do not register
Commonwealth & Dependency citizens with “The Right of Abode”
Those with Patriality
Spouses (an average of 25,000 per annum from the Indian SC)
Work Permit Holders who are granted leave to remain
Student Visa holders who are given leave to remain
Refugees & Asylum Seekers
Economic Migrants (usually holders of a visit visa, they simply stay on)

And so on.

The UK’s population increased (gross) by around 1.9 million in 2006/7:-

Legal Immigrants 574,000 ONS
New Births 734,000 ONS
“Overstays” 400,000 ONS *
Illegals 200,000 **
Total 1,908,000 Gross

* This is the figure published by the ONS for those visitors to the UK who simply stay on

** This figure is extrapolated from the number of illegal immigrants discovered at our major ports. Around 10 % of vehicles were stopped and searched in 2006

The number of people leaving the UK was given as 200,000 by the ONS. This includes those UK citizens who still return to the UK to use NHS services and those who receive a UK Government pension, heating allowance and other Government allowances and payments.

The contribution made by immigrants to the economy has been an argument used by Politicians, Civil Servants and others who support mass immigration. At a recent House of Commons Committee hearing the costs of providing immigration services was put at £8.78 Billion, as follows:-

Costs of crimes committed by Immigrants £4000 Million
Asylum Support / Processing £1600
Money Sent Home £1400
Border Controls £0690
HIV Treatment £0330
English Lessons £0280
Ethnic Minority Awards Scheme £0169
Security £0174
Translation Services £0100
The Commission for Race Equality £0032
Higher Education £0006.7
Local Authority Race Relations £0003.1

A Treasury Report stated that Immigration might add 0.5% to our GDP or reduce it by the same amount. Politicians and Civil Servants have never willingly issued comprehensive figures on the costs of immigration or the number of immigrants. To do so would have been to reveal their incompetence. Some investigative journalists and the odd whistle blower have revealed the true extent of the “problem”.

A recent TV documentary on this subject interviewed a Somali woman living in East London with her three or four children. Her husband had left and was thought to be living in Kenya. Her income, from the local authority, was given as £34,000 per annum. This of course included all kinds of income support, child benefits and so on.

The last time I looked at the UK’s crime figures 15% of all jail inmates were “foreigners” and 25% came from ethnic minorities. I have worked in over 50 countries and cannot think of one who was so lax with its immigration policies and policing. Immigration is the one factor that affects each and every facet of UK life be it education (including special needs and interpreting services), crime (police, courts, jails, legal aid etc) health, transport, housing, utilities, social services / special needs. All lurch from crisis to crisis.

Government spending increases year on year to pay for these services and taxes increase. Each year the Government goes deeper in to debt. The UK’s share of global trade decreases year on year and our negative trade balance increases. The Government just hopes that our GDP / Tax Revenues will grow year on year. Increasing taxes be they direct or “stealth taxes” can be / is counter productive.

The UK is now one of the most densely populated countries on earth with a population in excess of 64 millions. England alone has a population density of around 1100 people per square mile (USA 7.1, China 341, Canada 8, France 280, India 764, Germany 495, Russia 22).

The UK has over 64 million people, personal debt exceeds GDP and Government debt is now around £500 Billion and growing by around £35 Billion per annum. The UK is increasingly dependent on others for manufactured goods, energy and food. Around 80% of the UK’s energy is generated by oil / gas / coal fired power plants, in France the figure is 20%.

Politicians argue that mass immigration drives up our GDP and yet, as stated earlier in these notes, it may reduce our GDP. What it does mean is that all services come under increasing pressure year on year and in many areas are failing. With this level of population we are highly vulnerable to any glitch in world trade particularly any factor that would reduce our importation of oil and LNG.

I have attended many meetings on this subject. The Politicians who have spoken have at best been naive. In truth they have been disingenuous and economic with the truth. They have never had the figures for immigration and misquote (or are simply ignorant of the contents of) the 1951 UN Charter for Refugees.

I see little or no prospect of the UK’s economy gaining momentum or expanding. We are a service- based economy and in difficult times it is the service sector that suffers most. The UK has over 8 million people who are “commercially inactive”. Over 25% of all jobs are Government jobs. We have seen what can happen when credit dries up or interest rates take a hike.

There is little prospect of levels of immigration diminishing as the UK is the destination of choice for many economic migrants, we are members of the EU and 500 million EU citizens have the right to come to the UK and finally the worlds population (having grown from 1.6 billion to 6.4 billion between 1900 and 2006) is set to exceed 9 billion in the next 35 years.


david said...

Very informative and needs to be a topic for debate in CDA.

Puckpan said...

Welcome to the blog world. We need conservative Democrats. The Republican party desperately needs to know that conservatives have another place to go.

peter said...

Hi nice blog. Ravensthorpe, Northamptonshire. It is UK’s fastest growing place with 3.8 million people…2.1 million visitors are welcomed each year. What is procedure for uk visa

Anonymous said...

Cross party Fabians will never allow the truth to get out.
Farming today a quote made had me searching for the 77 million mentioned.
I came up with this;
Having probs re link.have left sufficiant info i hope!

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Facts on a plate: our population is at least 77 million
Independent on Sunday, The, Oct 28, 2007 by city eye
E-mail Print Link It is the statistic that dare not speak its name, though eventually it must. It has huge ramifications for the civil and political life of this country, the health of the equity markets and, most immediately, the residential property market. So don't forget you read it here first: the population of the UK is presently somewhere between 77 and 80 million.

The 2001 census, already hopelessly out of date and easy to avoid for those who find filling in forms a trifle inelegant, numbered us at a little under 59 million. But as statistics go, that one's most definitely a damned lie.

My sources for the above statement are good, but scared of admitting the truth for fear of incurring the wrath of Whitehall. It's like the best way of monitoring illegal drug consumption: forget the pious statements from ministers - the foolproof method is to sample our water and the effluent in it. That's easily the best way of monitoring what the nation has been consuming.

Consumption - that's the thing. Based on what we eat, one big supermarket chain reckons there are 80 million people living in the UK. The demand for food is a reliable indicator; as Sir Richard Branson says, you can have all the money in the world but you can only eat onelunch and one dinner.

The supermarket in question was privately lobbying the Competition Commission to let it grow its market share. The argu- ment, reasonably enough, was that the market was far bigger than the regulator realised, so expanding the network was fair.

I have a second, respectable, source. A major, non-commercial agricultural institution reckons there are 77 million of us in the UK. Again, its reckoning is based on what we eat.

That faint background noise you're hearing as you read this is the sound of everyone slithering off the record. Why? In political terms, standing behind these figures would be to toss a hand grenade into a vat of gasoline. People would be hounded out of a job for scaremongering.

The Office for National Statistics' figures, published last week, predict a population of 75 million by 2051. It's an honest estimate but horribly wide of the mark because number counting doesn't work effectively. If you want to know how many there are of us, ask a food firm.

If the true numbers were revealed, the Little Englanders and xenophobes would come out in force about the evils of immigration. But that's what made America great in the 19th century, and it's a driving force of our economy right now. It's also anti- inflationary.

David Buik, a money manager with broker BGC Partners, was talking of "one million Eastern Europeans unaccounted for in London" on television last week. I suspect he's right if somewhat conservative in his estimate. How many do you see working in the construction industry and waiting at tables?

And when I say "anti-inflationary", I mean they are getting rotten wages. Dignified by the term "cheap labour", the hidden hordes will do well for the services sector, among others. People are assets - to maintain and to be maintained - so we are wealthier as a nation.

All of which is reflected in strong economic demand and markets see-sawing between optimism over what we all see on the streets (that 77 million figure feels right to me) and the possibility of something nasty if the Bank of England credit-crunch prognosis is correct (to echo last week, I think next spring will be unpleasant).

As for housing, property magnates and chief executives of housing associations alike say the expanding population means serious demand for the foreseeable future, credit crunch or no. Next week, I'll look at the detail of this argument.

Copyright c 2007 Independent Newspapers UK Limited. All rights owned or operated by The Independent.
Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights Reserved.

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About Me

Mike Smith, is Chairman of the Conservative Democratic Alliance (CDA). He was formerly on the Executive Council of the Conservative Monday Club. He is a Chartered Surveyor. Distinguished members of Mr Keith-Smith's family include James Keith, the legendary Prussian Field-Marshal, and his brother George Keith, hereditary Earl Marischal of Scotland and friend of Frederick the Great. Through his paternal grandmother he is descended from Frederick Philipse, Dutch-born merchant of New Amsterdam. Distinguished members of the family who subsequently made their life in England included General Sir Frederick Philipse Robinson. Smith was a member of the Conservative Party for 32 years, attaining area rank and serving for several years as Vice-Chairman of Portsmouth South Conservatives. In 2002 he was expelled from the party for attacking Iain Duncan Smith in print. Challenging this unlawful expulsion with a writ, he was readmitted and his costs paid by Central Office. In the 2005 General Election he stood as the UKIP candidate for Portsmouth North. Smith recently won a major test case for libel over the internet against a former schoolteacher.